New study by arctic and Delphi experts Jon McEwan.
Finnish Arctic marine technology is globally dominant in ice-breakers. The foresight is produced by utilization of the Policy Delphi method to the year 2030 and by using other future studies techniques: strong prospective trends, weak signals, wild cards, and a SWOT analysis. Expert solicitation was from the United States, Canada and other Arctic nations that need ice-going vessels, offshore and subsea technologies. The warming trend or climate change has opened the famed North-East Passage and the North-West Passages to new shipping possibilities with record seasonal sea ice retreat with the help of ice- going vessels and ice-breakers.
What are the implications for Finland’s shipping sector (in decline from the heyday of Finnish pre-eminence in luxury liners) with the possibilities of new Arctic sea routes? Policy Delphi uses internet based software with real-time capabilities. Policy Delphi allows for distinct differences in expert commentary and arguments: for Finland’s AMT industrial cluster producing icebreakers, offshore and subsea technologies for decision-makers.
Panel selection was based on the competence-interest matrix using the ‘snowball method’ from recognized experts in Arctic marine technology, from referrals based on panelists’ nominations. Comments and arguments compiled by interviews in Round I, in the pilot survey, produced feedback in the form of an executive summary prior to Round II, in the structural and themed questionnaire using real-time Delphi.
The in-depth and comprehensive queries focus on Finnish Arctic marine technology—developed into ten divisions of AMT:
- weather forecasting services and monitoring systems;
- oil and gas exploration;
- ship navigational systems and controls,
- ICT: specialized software for real-time monitoring for ship controls Arctic transport and logistics;
- offshore technology for oil and gas,
- wind and other;
- shipyards for construction of icebreakers and other ice-class vessels;
- subsea technology and below-the-ice technology;
- environmental technology products, for example ‘clean-tech;’
- and safety and rescue products.
What does utilization of the Policy Delphi method and other future studies techniques reveal about the foresight for Finland’s Arctic marine technology?
What are the probable futures for Finland’s Arctic marine technology cluster? To sum, Finland’s AMT cluster is well poised for growth well beyond 2030. This is supported by the foresight on Finnish know-how continuing to play key roles in the production of Finland’s Arctic marine technology. Russia’s promotion of the North-East Passage is based on its Arctic Strategy and requires Finnish ice expertise and FAMT. This bodes well for Finland.
You can find all study from this link http://epublications.uef.fi/pub/urn_nbn_fi_uef-20140629/urn_nbn_fi_uef-20140629.pdf
Jon McEwan’s arctic expertise and method skills are available in arctic issues and to do international Delphi-application by independent researcher or in co-operation with Regional Development Ltd Compány (better known in Finland RD Aluekehitys Oy).
Regional Development Limited, Espoo, Finland – Independent Researcher Responsible for conducting interviews of experts from North America and Europe for an ELY-keskus study:
- Arktisen meriteknologian ennakointi—Uudenmaan pk-yritysten näkökulmasta, Raportteja 13/2013 and my dissertation.
- Data sharing with Senior Researcher / Principal.
- Analysed and interpreted both quantitative, qualitative and mixed data.
- Co-authored e-articles and journal article based on results and findings.
Do not hestitate take contact to Jon McEwan or Managing Director, Dr. Yrjö Myllylä:
- Jon Mc Ewan: jon.mcewan @hotmail.com, tel. + 358 45 320 8813.
- Yrjö Myllylä: yrjo.myllyla @rdmarketinfo.net.